Showing posts with label emergence. Show all posts
Showing posts with label emergence. Show all posts

How function diversity scales, from cells to companies

Mike's Notes

Fascinating work. Something to test Pipi against using long-cycle simulations.

Resources

References

  • Scaling laws for function diversity and specialization across socioeconomic and biological complex systems. Authors: Vicky Chuqiao Yang, James Holehouse, Hyejin Youn, José Ignacio Arroyo, Sidney Redner, Geoffrey B. West, and Christopher P. Kempes. PNAS (February 12, 2025). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2509729123

Repository

  • Home > Ajabbi Research > Library > Subscriptions > Parallax
  • Home > Handbook > 

Last Updated

04/05/2026

How function diversity scales, from cells to companies

By: Santa Fe Institute
Parallax: 18/02/2026

Mike is the inventor and architect of Pipi and the founder of Ajabbi.

A mystery novel, a history book, and a fantasy epic may have little in common in plot or style. But count the words inside them and a strange regularity appears: many new words show up early, then fewer and fewer as the author reuses what has already been introduced.

That pattern, known as Heaps’ law, turns out not to belong to books alone. A new study in PNAS finds that the same rule also describes the growth patterns in many complex systems, from living cells and corporations to universities and government agencies — and could even be used to predict how they will change in the future.

The study, led by scientists at the Santa Fe Institute and MIT, doesn’t just document this regularity; it introduces a mathematical model that quantifies how different systems diversify and specialize. It finds that, while systems vary in how much they invest in creating entirely new functions, once those functions exist, their subsequent growth follows a remarkably universal rich-get-richer process.

“What’s striking is that these systems weren’t designed to follow the same rules,” says SFI Program Postdoctoral Fellow James Holehouse, who co-led the study with Vicky Chuqiao Yang, a former SFI Omidyar Fellow now at MIT. “Yet when you look at how they grow, you see the same trade-off between adding something new and building on what already exists.”

“It is remarkable that cells, bureaucracies, and companies, despite obvious differences, all grow their function repertoire with a similar pattern.”

In the study, researchers focus on what they call “distinct functions” — the different kinds of work a system performs. In a cell, that might mean different proteins. In an organization, it could mean different kinds of jobs. As systems grow, they do add new kinds of work, but they do so more and more slowly over time.

Using their model, the team analyzed dozens of bacterial and microbial cells, more than a hundred U.S. federal agencies, thousands of companies and universities, and hundreds of metropolitan areas. Across most of these cases, the same pattern appeared: as systems got bigger, the pace at which they added new functions steadily slowed, growing sublinearly.

In practical terms, sublinear growth means that doubling the size of a system does not double the number of functions inside it. Instead, growth increasingly comes from expanding what already exists. A growing organization hires more people into established jobs before creating new titles. A cell produces more of the proteins it already uses instead of evolving entirely new ones.

“It is remarkable that cells, bureaucracies, and companies, despite obvious differences, all grow their function repertoire with a similar pattern,” says Yang, an assistant professor at MIT Sloan and the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society. “This suggests that the regularity discovered in Heaps’ law applies not only to what humans create, like books, but also to human organizations themselves.”

Cities, however, follow a different version of the same trend. They still add new kinds of jobs as they grow, but they do so much more slowly, following a logarithmic pattern rather than the power-law pattern seen in other systems. Even as populations soar, genuinely new job types become increasingly rare.

That difference reflects a deeper structural divide. Cells, firms, and agencies behave like organisms, with clear boundaries and unified goals. Cities, by contrast, resemble ecosystems shaped by the independent choices of individuals rather than centralized control.

Geoffrey West, a co-author and Santa Fe Institute Shannan Distinguished Professor, adds, “There are underlying regularities shaping how complexity builds, even in systems that look completely different on the surface.”

This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under Award No. 2526746

The Neural Harness: The new CPU

Mike's Notes

Some deep insights here from Will Schneck. Asking more questions than he answers. Especially deterministic vs probabilistic. Where does emergence emerge? 😎😎

Resources

References

  • Reference

Repository

  • Home > Ajabbi Research > Library > Subscriptions > The Focus AI
  • Home > Handbook > 

Last Updated

03/05/2026

The Neural Harness: The new CPU

By: Will Schenk
The Focus AI: 01/05/2026

I am a father, entrepreneur, technologist and aspiring woodsman.

My wife Ksenia and I live in the woods of Northwest Connecticut with our four boys and one baby girl. I have a lumber mill and all the kids love using the tractor.

I’m currently building The Focus AI, Umwelten, and Cornwall Market.

"Coding agents will build their own tools and their own agents. Agents will be used by non-engineers to manage other agents to manage parts of the org chart."


I'm on my second Claude Max plan. That's in addition to Cursor, Codex, Gemini, and a healthy Amp habit. Not to mention a Jetson AGX Thor I'm about to plug in at the office — more on that one later.

Overnight jobs parsing financial deal structures, ops stuff, research, monitoring logs, responding to events, all the little background things. The first plan tapped out, I added another, that one tapped out too, and now I'm provisioning a third the way you'd add a build runner. Mundane.

A new entry in an old list

Look at the paragraph I just wrote. Overnight jobs parsing financial deal structures, ops stuff, research, monitoring logs, responding to events. Half of those words are themselves names of native units of computing. Logs — log aggregators. Events — event streams. Research — search indexes. Ops — schedulers, orchestrators, deployment systems. Jobs — queues. The lede is already a list of older units I'm wiring into.

Computing has been accreting native units forever, and the way you build the next layer is by composing the units underneath it.

You combine adders and accumulators to make a CPU. You combine CPUs and memory and a bus to make a machine. You combine logic gates and clocks to make registers. You combine Boolean functions and a process model to make an operating system. You combine lexers and parsers and code generators to make a compiler. You combine source files and a compiler to make a program. You combine programs and a network stack to make a service. You combine services and a database to make an application. You combine applications and a queue to make a pipeline. You combine pipelines and a stream processor to make a real-time system. You combine streams and a log aggregator to make observability. You combine logs and a metric and an anomaly model to make a monitor. You combine all of it and a scheduler and you have a system that runs without you watching it.

Flat-color treemap of the computing stack: small blocks for adders, clocks, registers, cpu, memory, bus growing diagonally up and to the right through machine, os, compiler, program, service, application, pipeline, stream, observability, monitor — culminating in a large block for scheduler.

Each layer is just the layer below, composed. That's what a native unit is — the thing you stop writing yourself, the thing you wire to. You don't write a compiler. You don't write a Postgres. You don't write a Kafka or a Kubernetes or a Lucene or a git. You pick the unit, you combine it with other units, you build on top.

Now look at that list again. Everything on it is sitting on top of Boolean logic. Silicon, gates, arithmetic, state machines, if/then. Numbers, types, queries, schedules, indexes — all of it is deterministic logic resolving down to ones and zeros. You can climb that stack pretty high, but you don't get out of it.

19th-century geological cross-section: layered strata of fossilized circuit traces — gates, clocks, registers, CPU, OS, compiler, program, service, application — opening into a newly excavated neural floor below, soft coral and cream tones, neuron tendrils threading up into the rock. The new floor under the old stack.

Neural nets aren't more of that. They're a different kind of logic. Pattern, association, similarity, fuzzy matching, generation. The thing silicon-and-Boolean was bad at, that we kept failing to solve with cleverer rules, the neural net does natively. We added a new floor — GPUs, TPUs, the Cerebras inference fabric, the Jetson on my desk — and a new kind of computation running on it that doesn't reduce to if A and B then C.

By themselves these things predict tokens. They don't loop, they don't read files, they don't remember. To get computation out of one you wrap it. A loop, some tools, file access, a shell, a way to manage context. That wrapper is the harness. The harness is the unit that turns "predicts the next token" into "does the work" — and lets the new kind of logic compose with the old kind.

The neural harness is to neural nets what the compiler was to source code. New entry on the list, joining the family rather than replacing it. The work I'm running on these two-going-on-three Max plans is mostly the harness wiring into the older units — tailing logs, querying state, watching streams, kicking off jobs, hitting indexes. New unit, old units, composed.

That's why the second Max plan isn't weird. The bill scales with how much work you're doing in the new unit. I'm doing a lot of work in the new unit.

How it shows up in a day

It really has stopped being a tool I reach for; its just the tool.

When I'm coding, I'm in a harness. When I'm reading a PDF I needed to read anyway, the harness is the thing reading it. Operations folder — SOWs, invoices, content ideas, project status — that's a harness. Parsing 20 financial deal docs and writing me a summary while I sleep — harness. Family infographics, fasting tracker, oura ring trends — harness, harness, harness. Different work, same unit.

Small-multiples grid: the same harness icon repeated across sixteen everyday domains — code editor, PDF reading, invoice, SOW draft, content ideas, project status, financial deal, overnight job, log monitor, email triage, family infographic, fasting tracker, Oura trends, calendar, research note, ops dashboard. One unit, many domains.

Coding was just the first place this paid off, because the feedback loop is tightest. Compile or don't, test or don't, the world tells you you're wrong inside a second. So that's where the harness got tuned first. That's why the unit is called a "coding agent" right now. But "coding" is vestigial. The thing isn't a coding agent. It's a harness around a model, and what runs in it is whatever you have tools for.

Rick Blalock said it in AI Engineering Miami — coding agent as universal software primitive. A 60-year-old in Texas replaced a $10k/month HubSpot bill by pointing one of these at the problem for three months. A 24-year-old window cleaner in Florida runs marketing, sales, and estimating off the same primitive. Both of them bought MacMinis. Tim Cook didn't have that on his bingo card.

The model question is below the harness question

Here's something I noticed about my own behavior: I'm mainly on Claude. Have been for months. I dip in and out of GPT and Grok and Gemini, but just sort of end up back here. Not because I reasoned out a model strategy — because Claude Code defaults to it and now I'm on Opus all day every day. Amp has its opinion and I try to set Cursor to super max mode, but really the model picked itself by way of the harness picking it for me.

So the perennial "Opus vs GPT-5 vs Gemini 3" argument is pitched one floor below where the action is. It's not model-vs-model. It's harness-with-default-model vs other-harness-with-default-model. The harness drives the model choice, often without telling you.

And underneath that, there's a whole zoo. Frontier reasoning models. Cheap fast models. Code-specific fine-tunes. Local models that run on the GPU you already own. Cerebras-fast inference at 1,200 tokens/sec, a different regime entirely. And the inside-the-harness thing: Tejas Bhakta at Miami called it "everything is models" — a compaction model running every two seconds, a code-search model at 80k tokens/sec, a frontier model doing only the heavy reasoning, all stitched together. Software 3.5, he called it. The harness picks all of that for you, or doesn't, depending on which harness.

Da Vinci anatomical-plate: a single mechanical harness apparatus on top labeled HARNESSIS — UNITAS SUPERIOR with four tool-attachments (LEGERE, SCRIBERE, IMPERARE, ITERARE), and below it a labeled menagerie of seven model 'species' — Frontier, Velox, Codicis, Localis, Compactionis, Quaerens, Cerebras — drawn as small mechanical creatures on aged parchment.

Which means the harness is a model strategy. Picking a harness on purpose means picking which models do which jobs inside it.

So which harness?

A separate post coming soon — each one deserves its own treatment and the conversation moves week to week. The shape of it:

You can build your own in a weekend. About 50 lines gets you the loop. Highly recommend, even if you never use it. Claude Code is the one everyone uses, and — by Anthropic's own model on Anthropic's own benchmark — the worst Claude harness on offer. (Niels Rogge posted Terminal-Bench 2: same Opus 4.6, Claude Code last, ForgeCode and Capy at 70-75%. Twenty-five points of accuracy from picking a different harness.) Picode is Mario Zechner's minimal, self-modifying one — four tools, the agent writes its own extensions, hot-reloads in the session. The most fun one to play with right now. Amp is the one I'm most fascinated with — though to be clear, I'm editing this post in Cursor. The multimodel thing actually works now. In January I wrote that Amp "should be better, but, you know, isn't." Four months later: it is.

Tufte-style horizontal bar chart of Terminal-Bench 2 scores on the same Opus 4.6: ForgeCode 74%, Capy 71%, Picode 62%, Amp 55%, Claude Code 49% — outlined in vermilion. Annotation on the right: 25-point gap from picking a different harness.

The point of this post is the unit, not the catalog.

What I'm still circling

Da Vinci notebook spread with marginalia: a Jetson AGX Thor on a small workbench labeled MACHINA LOCALIS, a brass token-cost gauge labeled STIPENDIUM TOKEN — quanto?, a half-configured harness with question marks labeled HARNESSIS CONFIGURATA — UNITAS NAVIS?, and a small chart of a rising line labeled LINEA NOVA IN STATU FINANCIALI. Sepia ink on parchment, inkwell and quill in the corner.

What's the unit of shipping? Ben Davis's claim in Miami was that it's becoming a directory of skill files plus a coding-agent runtime. That feels right. But the runtime is also moving — picode's bet is that it should be malleable inside the session, so you can't pin it. Maybe the unit is even smaller. Maybe the unit is the harness, configured.

What about the Jetson on my desk. The other thing the bill is about to teach us is that some of this work shouldn't be paying a subscription at all. Local models on local hardware — gpt-oss, Qwen, MiniMax, whatever's frontier-enough for the job — running on the GPU you already own, or the Jetson, or the laptop. Cheap as electricity. No data leaving the building. The harness doesn't care which model it's calling. The bill cares a lot. I think a real chunk of what's running on the second Max plan ends up local by the end of the year.

When the bill becomes a real line item — and it will — what does that conversation sound like? "Cloud spend" took ten years to become its own column on the financial statement. "Token spend" might take less. We're paying for a unit of computation, not for software. Different shape entirely.

I'll get the third Max plan tomorrow. There's another job.

The Coming Crisis: Fingers of Instability

Mike's Notes

An excellent description of what a critical state is, using a real-world example: the global financial system. Critical state also applies to other phenomena, including earthquakes.

I have read the two excellent books by Buchanan and Taleb in the references. I must also read Sornette's book.

I think everything in the universe has its time in the sun, with a birth, existence, and death, often followed by a transformation into its oppositeThe laws of science apply to everything, including social systems like capitalism, trees, planets, schools of music, cars, etc.

Resources

References

  • Why Catastrophes Happen, by Mark Buchanan.
  • Antifragility, by Nassim Taleb.
  • Why Stock Markets Crash, by Didier Sornette.

Repository

  • Home > Ajabbi Research > Library > Subscriptions > Thoughts from the Frontline
  • Home > Handbook > 

Last Updated

02/03/2026

The Coming Crisis: Fingers of Instability

By: John Maudlin
Thoughts from the Frontline: 28/02/2026

John Maudlin is Co-Founder, Mauldin Economics.

This letter is a little different. I am indeed working on my book about what I believe is a coming crisis by reviewing five different cycle theories. They all arrive at a similar scenario from  different points of view, but they all suggest a crisis occurring sometime around the end of this decade or perhaps shortly thereafter. And all for different reasons. One background element ties them together, which is the subject of today’s letter.

This is essentially a shortened first chapter. To long time readers, that background connection is our old friend: sandpiles and fingers of instability. but with a lot of edits and additions. Jumping in…

Ubiquity, Complexity Theory, and Sandpiles

With five different views about the coming crisis, which one is right? Do they conflict or reinforce each other? The correct answer is they’re all connected, but not in obvious ways. And in the end, it makes no difference which one is “more” right. The results will be the same. Understanding this below-the-radar connection is key to making sure you, your family, community and country all get through this to what will be the inevitable positive conclusion, even if it is a very bumpy ride.

We are going to start our exploration with excerpts from an important book by Mark Buchanan, called Why Catastrophes Happen. I HIGHLY recommend it to those of you who, like me, are trying to understand the complexity of the markets, economy and politics/society. The book is about chaos theory, complexity theory and critical states. It is written in layman’s terms. There are no equations, just easy-to-grasp, well-written stories and analogies. But it gives us an essential framework to understand the coming storms.

As kids, we all had the fun of going to the beach and playing in the sand. Remember taking your plastic buckets and making sand piles? Slowly pouring the sand into an ever-bigger pile, until one side of the pile started an avalanche?

Imagine, Buchanan says, dropping one grain of sand after another onto a table. A pile soon develops. Eventually, just one grain starts an avalanche. Usually it’s a small one, but sometimes it builds on itself and seems like a side of the pile collapses. Why?

Well, in 1987 three physicists named Per Bak, Chao Tang, and Kurt Weisenfeld began to play the sandpile game in their lab at Brookhaven National Laboratory in New York. Now, piling one grain of sand at a time is a slow process, so they wrote a computer program to do it. Not as much fun, but a whole lot faster. Not that they really cared about sandpiles. They were interested in what are called nonequilibrium systems.

They learned some interesting things. What is the typical size of an avalanche? After a huge number of tests with millions of grains of sand, they found there is no typical size. "Some involved a single grain; others, ten, a hundred or a thousand. Still others were pile-wide cataclysms involving millions that brought nearly the whole mountain down. At any time, literally anything, it seemed, might be just about to occur." The piles were chaotic in their unpredictability.

Now, let’s read this next paragraph from Buchanan slowly. It is important, as it creates a mental image that may help us understand the organization of financial markets, the world economy and society (emphasis mine).

"To find out why (such unpredictability) should show up in their sandpile game, Bak and colleagues next played a trick with their computer. Imagine peering down on the pile from above, and coloring it in according to its steepness. Where it is relatively flat and stable, color it green; where steep and, in avalanche terms, ‘ready to go,’ color it red. What do you see? They found that at the outset the pile looked mostly green, but that, as the pile grew, the green became infiltrated with ever more red. With more grains, the scattering of red danger spots grew until a dense skeleton of instability ran through the pile. Here then was a clue to its peculiar

The Critical State

Something only a math nerd could love? Scientists refer to this as a “critical state.” The term can mean the point at which water goes to ice or steam, or the moment that critical mass induces a nuclear reaction, etc. It is the point at which something triggers a change in the basic nature or character of the object or group. Thus (and very casually for all you physicists), we refer to something being in a critical state (or use the term critical mass) when there is the opportunity for significant change.

"But to physicists, [the critical state] has always been seen as a kind of theoretical freak sideshow, a devilishly unstable and unusual condition that arises only under the most exceptional circumstances [in highly controlled experiments]… In the sandpile game, however, a critical state seemed to arise naturally through the mindless sprinkling of grains."

Thus, they asked themselves, could this phenomenon show up elsewhere? In the earth’s crust, triggering earthquakes, or as wholesale changes in an ecosystem – or as a stock market crash?

"Could the special organization of the critical state explain why the world at large seems so susceptible to unpredictable upheavals?" Could it help us understand not just earthquakes, but why cartoons in a third-rate paper in Denmark could cause world-wide riots?

Buchanan concludes in his opening chapter:

"There are many subtleties and twists in the story … but the basic message, roughly speaking, is simple: The peculiar and exceptionally unstable organization of the critical state does indeed seem to be ubiquitous in our world. Researchers in the past few years have found its mathematical fingerprints in the workings of all the upheavals I’ve mentioned so far [earthquakes, eco-disasters, market crashes], as well as in the spreading of epidemics, the flaring of traffic jams, the patterns by which instructions trickle down from managers to workers in the office, and in many other things. At the heart of our story, then, lies the discovery that networks of things of all kinds – atoms, molecules, species, people, and even ideas – have a marked tendency to organize themselves along similar lines. On the basis of this insight, scientists are finally beginning to fathom what lies behind tumultuous events of all sorts, and to see patterns at work where they have never seen them before."

Going back to the sandpile game, you find that as you double the number of grains of sand involved in an avalanche, the probability of an avalanche becomes 2.14 times more likely. We find something similar in earthquakes. In terms of energy, the data indicate that earthquakes become four times less likely each time you double the energy they release. Mathematicians refer to this as a "power law," a special mathematical pattern that stands out in contrast to the overall complexity of the earthquake process.

Fingers of Instability

So, what happens in our game?

"…after the pile evolves into a critical state, many grains rest just on the verge of tumbling, and these grains link up into ‘fingers of instability’ of all possible lengths. While many are short, others slice through the pile from one end to the other. The chain reaction triggered by a single grain might lead to an avalanche of any size whatsoever, depending on whether that grain fell on a short, intermediate or long finger of instability."

Now, we come to a critical point in our discussion of the critical state. Again, read this with not just markets but our entire society in mind:

"In this simplified setting of the sandpile, the power law also points to something else: the surprising conclusion that even the greatest of events have no special or exceptional causes. After all, every avalanche, large or small, starts out the same way, when a single grain falls and makes the pile just slightly too steep at one point. What makes one avalanche much larger than another has nothing to do with its original cause, and nothing to do with some special situation in the pile just before it starts. Rather, it has to do with the perpetually unstable organization of the critical state, which makes it always possible for the next grain to trigger an avalanche of any size."

This concept applies to not just financial markets, but to how we organize our political systems, generational differences, geopolitics and war, the over-production of elites and even how information is interpreted. They ALL connect. The Great Recession was a financial crisis. COVID-19 was a health crisis with a financial crisis and added political crises which further divided a fractious world.

We all see pressures building up in many different aspects of society. They each create their own fingers of instability. But in the sandpile of life, they are connected. 

Now, let’s couple this idea with a few other concepts. First, Hyman Minsky (who should have been a Nobel laureate) points out that stability leads to instability. The more comfortable we get with a given condition or trend, the longer it will persist and then when the trend fails, the more dramatic the correction.

The problem with long term macroeconomic stability is that it tends to produce unstable financial arrangements. Just as long term geopolitical or social stability will eventually produce a critical state. If we believe that tomorrow and next year will be the same as last week and last year, we are more willing to add debt or postpone savings in favor of current consumption. Or ignore any of a number of societal crises. Thus, says Minsky, the longer the period of stability, the higher the potential risk for even greater instability when market participants or a country’s citizens must change their behavior.

Relating this to our sandpile, the longer a critical state builds up in an economy, or in other words, the more "fingers of instability" are allowed to develop connections to other fingers of instability, the greater the potential for a serious "avalanche."

Therefore (and ironically), the longer a crisis takes to come about, the bigger the repercussions. One of the conclusions at the end of the book will be that we simply don’t know when the avalanche will be triggered. The US is such a large and wealthy country, and many of the rest of the shirts in the global laundry are just as (or even more) dirty, that global money might come to the US as a safe haven, thus prolonging our “stability” as the sandpile grows to an ever more critical state.

We Are Managing Uncertainty

Or, maybe, a series of smaller shocks lessens the long reach of the fingers of instability, giving a paradoxical rise to even more apparent stability. This is the thrust of Nassim Taleb’s book, Antifragility.

“People often think that the opposite of fragility is durability. If something is fragile, that means it’s easily broken. Therefore, if something isn’t easily broken, logically that should mean it’s the opposite of fragile. However, there’s another step beyond. Since there isn’t an established English word for such a thing, [Nassim] calls it antifragility—not just the lack of fragility, but its true opposite.

“We live in an unpredictable world. The models and theories we use to try to predict the future invariably fall apart as unforeseen events prove them wrong and, in turn, destroy the plans we made based on those models. Clearly, systems based on such flawed models are bound to be fragile—easily broken.

“The solution to this problem is antifragility. Instead of a never-ending search for more accurate models and better predictions, all we need to do is make sure that we’re in a position to benefit from uncertainty and volatility instead of being harmed by it.

“This is hardly a new concept; nature exhibits antifragility in almost everything she creates. An organism can strengthen itself through minor damage in the form of exercise. In a similar sense, a species can strengthen itself through minor damage in the form of natural selection, which leads to evolution.

“However, unlike nature, humans try to control the world through models and rules. We think we can perfectly predict the future and avoid any shocks that would cause our fragile systems to fall apart. We think we can outsmart millions of years of evolution and antifragility, and we’re almost invariably wrong.

“Instead of trying to predict the future, we should assume that there will be major events we can’t see coming—because, sooner or later, there will be. If we’re prepared for them, using the methods and practices explained in this book, we can make sure that such events work to our advantage instead of hurting us. By avoiding fragility and embracing antifragility wherever possible, we can set ourselves up to thrive in an uncertain world.

Another way to think about it is the way Didier Sornette, a French geophysicist, has described financial crashes in his wonderful book, Why Stock Markets Crash (the math, though, was far beyond me!). He wrote:

"[T]he specific manner by which prices collapsed is not the most important problem: a crash occurs because the market has entered an unstable phase and any small disturbance or process may have triggered the instability. Think of a ruler held up vertically on your  the instantaneous cause of the collapse is secondary."

When things are unstable, it isn’t the last grain of sand that causes the pile to collapse or the slight breeze that causes the ruler on your fingertip to fall. Those are the "proximate" causes. They’re the closest reasons at hand for the collapse. The real reason, though, is the "remote" cause, the farthest reason. The farthest reason is the underlying instability of the system itself.

This is one reason we get "fat tails" in financial markets. In theory, returns on investment should look like a smooth bell curve, with the ends tapering off into nothing. According to the theoretical distribution, events that deviate from the mean by five or more standard deviations ("5-sigma events") are extremely rare, with 10 or more sigma being practically impossible – at least in theory.

However, under certain circumstances, such events are more common than expected; 15-sigma or even rarer events have happened in the world of investing. Examples include Long Term Capital in the late 1990s and any of a dozen bubbles in history. Because the real-world commonality of high-sigma events is much greater than in theory, the distribution is "fatter" at the extremes ("tails") than one would expect.

This holds true in geopolitics, too. The unthinkable sometimes happens. Before World War I began, no one thought it would come to war. Peace had been the rule for 40 years. Surely, mankind had evolved. Until…

Thus, the build-up of critical states, those fingers of instability, is perpetuated even as, and precisely because, we hedge risks. We try to "stabilize" the risks we see, shoring them up with derivatives, emergency plans, insurance, treaties, alliances, political change and all manner of risk-control procedures. And by doing so, the economic and social systems can absorb body blows that would have been severe only a few decades ago. We distribute the risks, and their effects, throughout the system.

Yet as we reduce the known risks, we sow the seeds for the next 10-sigma event. It is the improbable, unseen risks that will create the next real crisis. It is not that the fingers of instability have been removed from the equation, it is that they lurk in different places, not yet visible.

A Stable Disequilibrium

We end up in a critical state that Paul McCulley calls "stable disequilibrium." It has "players" all over the world, tied inextricably together in a vast dance through investment, debt, derivatives, trade, globalization, international business and finance. Each player works hard to maximize their own personal outcome and reduce their exposure to "fingers of instability."

The longer we go on, asserts Minsky, the more likely and violent any "avalanche" is. The more the fingers of instability can build, the more that state of stable disequilibrium can go critical on us.

It's all connected. We are building an unstable sandpile and it will come crashing down at some point. Then we will have to dig our way out.

The good news is we have seen this movie before. And after the crisis, a new period of stability and growth follows, for at least another 50-80 years. In my upcoming book we will look for ways to get through to that happier future.

Scottsdale, Houston, Los Angeles, West Palm Beach, Boston and New York

Next week I fly to Houston where I am on an economic advisory board for the Rice University economics department. Then I will be in LA meeting with the Inner Circle, exploring several companies that are literally changing the technology landscape of defense and energy. We will be opening clinics in West Palm Beach and the DC area, hopefully in early April. Construction has begun. Then NYC and Boston.

I finish this from Scottsdale where Dr. Roizen and I are attending the 2026 Functional Longevity Summit, along with 3-400 doctors. The organizers have asked us to talk about Therapeutic Plasma Exchange. For those interested in staying healthy for longer, Mike and many experts now believe the first part of your journey should begin with therapeutic plasma exchange. Seriously. You can learn more at Lifespan-Edge.com (note the dash). If you haven’t, you really need to read our main research report. The research and other information can make a real difference in your life. You can set up a discovery call to talk with our doctors about the procedure and see if it is right for you. As well as look at a lot more research.

And with that, I will hit the send button. Have a great week.

Your thinking how to make my body antifragile analyst,

A stunning visualisation explores the intricate circulatory system of our oceans

Mike's Notes

This stunning video from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Centre is an excellent example of a complex system. It has everything.

  • Fluid mechanics
  • Emergence

I discovered the video in a recent edition of Aeon Weekly.

It also shows how this circulation system can change and has changed.

Resources

References

  • Reference

Repository

  • Home > Ajabbi Research > Library > Subscriptions > Aeon Weekly
  • Home > Handbook > 

Last Updated

18/05/2025

A stunning visualisation explores the intricate circulatory system of our oceans

By: Kathleen Gaeta Greer
Aeon: 15/05/2025

This video from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center provides an unprecedented look at the intricate, interconnected flow of ocean currents around the world. The visualisation was created using a NASA model built from global data gathered from a wide range of inputs, including buoys and spacecrafts. The resulting imagery illustrates how factors including planetary physics, heat and salinity propel the ceaseless oceanic movement of this global ‘conveyer belt’. As the video zooms in on some of the most active and interesting currents around the globe, the NASA oceanographer Josh Willis details how this aquatic circulatory system affects human life, from fisheries to regional climates.

  • Video by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center
  • Producer: Kathleen Gaeta Greer

Self-organizing systems: what, how, and why?

Mike's Notes

Carlos Gershenson's paper about self-organising systems was recently published by Nature in npj complexity. Carlos is the editor of Complexity Digest.

I removed the references in the original paper because importing this into Google Blogger is messy. Please refer to the original paper for this missing information.

Resources

References


Repository

  • Home > Ajabbi Research > Library > Subscriptions > Complexity Digest
  • Home > Ajabbi Research > Library > Thermodynamics

Last Updated

11/04/2025

Self-organizing systems: what, how, and why?

By: Carlos Gershenson
Nature > npj complexity: 25/03/2025

Abstract

I present a personal account of self-organizing systems, framing relevant questions to better understand self-organization, information, complexity, and emergence. With this aim, I start with a notion and examples of self-organizing systems (what?), continue with their properties and related concepts (how?), and close with applications (why?) in physics, chemistry, biology, collective behavior, ecology, communication networks, robotics, artificial intelligence, linguistics, social science, urbanism, philosophy, and engineering.

What are self-organizing systems?

"Being ill defined is a feature common to all important concepts.” —Benoît Mandelbrot

I will not attempt to define a “self-organizing system”, as it involves the cybernetic problem of defining “system”, the informational problem of defining “organization”, and the ontological problem of defining “self”. Still, there are plenty of examples of systems that we can usefully call self-organizing: flocks of birds, schools of fish, swarms of insects, herds of cattle, and some crowds of people. In these animal examples, collective behavior is a product of the interactions of individuals, not determined by a leader or an external signal. There are also several examples from non-living systems, such as vortexes, crystallization, self-assembly, and pattern formation in general. In these cases, elements of a system also interact to achieve a global pattern.

Self-organization or similar concepts have been present since antiquity (see Section 3.12), so the idea itself is not new. Nevertheless, we still lack the proper conceptual framework to understand it properly. The term “self-organizing system” was coined by W. Ross Ashby in the early days of cybernetics. Ashby’s purpose was to describe deterministic machines that could change their own organization. Ever since, the concept has been used in a broad range of disciplines, including statistical mechanics, supramolecular chemistry, computer science, and artificial life.

There is an unavoidable subjectivity when speaking about self-organizing systems, as the same system can be described as self-organizing or not (see Section 2.1). Stafford Beer gave the following example: an ice cream at room temperature will thaw. This will increase its temperature and entropy, so it would be “self-disorganizing”. However, if we focus on the function of an ice cream for being eaten, it would be “self-organizing”, because it would approach a pleasant temperature and consistency for degustating it, improving its “function”. Ashby also mentioned that one just needs to call the attractor of a dynamical system “organized”, and then almost any system will be self-organizing.

So, the question should not be whether a system is self-organizing, but rather (being pragmatic) when is it useful to describe a system as self-organizing? The answer will slowly unfold along this paper, but in short, it can be said that self-organization is a useful description when we are interested on describing systems at multiple scales, and understanding how these affect each other. For example, collective motion and cyber-physical systems can benefit from such a description, compared to a single-scale narrative/model. This is common with complexity, as interactions can generate novel information that is not present in initial nor boundary conditions, limiting predictability.

So rather than a definition, we can do with a notion: a system can be described as self-organizing when its elements interact to produce a global function or behavior. This is in contrast with centralized systems, where a single or few elements “control” the rest, or with simply distributed systems, where a global problem can be divided (reduced) and each element does its part, but there is no need to interact nor integrate elementary solutions. Thus, self-organizing systems are a useful description when we want to relate individual behaviors and interactions to global patterns or functions. If we can describe a system fully (for our particular purposes) at a single scale, then self-organization could be perhaps identified, but superfluos (not useful). And the “self” implies that the “control” comes from within the system, rather than from an external signal/controller that would explicitly indicate elements of what to do.

For example, we can decide to call a society “self-organizing” if we are interested in how individual interactions lead to the formation of fashion, ideologies, opinions, norms, and laws; but at the same time, how the emerging global properties affect the behavior of the individuals. If we were interested in an aggregate property of a population, e.g., its average height, then calling the group of individuals “self-organizing” would not give any extra information, and thus would not be useful.

It should be stressed that self-organization is not a property of systems per se. It is a way of describing systems, i.e., a narrative.

How can self-organizing systems be measured?

"It is the function of science to discover the existence of a general reign of order in nature and to find the causes governing this order. And this refers in equal measure to the relations of man — social and political — and to the entire universe as a whole.” —Dmitri Mendeleev

Even when self-organization had been described intuitively since antiquity — the seeds of the narrative were present — the proper tools for studying it became available only recently: computers. Since self-organizing systems require the explicit description of elements and interactions, our brains, blackboards, and notebooks are too limited to consider the number of required variables to study the properties of self-organizing systems. It was only through the relatively recent development of information technology that we were able to study the richness of self-organization, just like we were unable to study the microcosmos before microscopes and the macrocosmos before telescopes.

Information

Computation can be generally described as the transformation of information, although Alan Turing formally defined computable numbers with the purpose of proving limits of formal systems (in particular, Hilbert’s decision problem). In the same environment where the first digital computers were built in the mid XXth century, Claude Shannon defined information to quantify its transmission, showing that information could be reliably transmitted through unreliable communication channels. As it turned out, Shannon’s information H is mathematically equivalent to Boltzmann-Gibbs entropy:

$$H=-K\mathop{\sum}\limits_{i=i}^{n}{p}_{i}\log {p}_{i},$$

(1)

where K is a positive constant and p is the probability of receiving symbol i from a finite alphabet of size n. This dimensionless measure will be maximal for a homogeneous probability distribution, and minimal when only one symbol has a probability p = 1. In binary, we have only two symbols (n = 2), and information would be minimal with a string of only ones or only zeroes (‘1111…’ or ‘0000…’). This implies that having more bits will not tell us anything new, because we already know what the next bits will be (assuming the probability distribution will not change). With a random-like string, such as a sequence of coin flips (‘11010001011011001010…’), information is maximal, because no matter how much previous information we have (full knowledge of the probability distribution), we will not be able to predict what the next bit might be better than chance.

In parallel, Norbert Wiener — one of the founders of cybernetics — proposed an alternative measure of information, which was basically the same as Shannon’s, but without the minus sign. Wiener’s information measured what one knows already, so it is minimal when we have a random string (homogeneous probability distribution) because all the information we already have is “useless” (to predict the next symbol), and maximal when we have a single symbol repeating (maximally biased probability distribution), because the information we have allows us to predict exactly the next symbol. Nevertheless, Shannon’s information is the one that everyone has used, and we will do the same.

Shannon’s information is also known as Shannon’s entropy, which can be also used as a measure of “disorder”. We already saw that it is maximal for random strings, and thus minimal for particularly ordered strings. Then, we can use the negative of Shannon’s information (which would be Wiener’s information) as a measure of organization. If the organization is a result of internal dynamics, then we can also use this measure for self-organization.

Nevertheless, just like with many measures, the interpretation depends on how the observer performs the measurement. Figure 1 shows how the same system, divided into four microstates or two macrostates (with probabilities represented as shades of gray) can increase its entropy/information (become more homogeneous) or decrease it, depending on how it is observed.

Fig. 1: The same system, observed at different levels or with different coarse grainings can be said to be disorganizing (entropy increasing) or organizing (entropy decreasing), for arbitrary initial and final states.

Probabilities of the system being in a state (a1, a2, b1, and b2 at the lower level, which can be aggregated in different ways at a higher level) are represented as shades of gray, so one can observe which configurations are more homogeneous (i.e., with higher entropy): if there is a high contrast in different states (such as between A' and B' in their initial state), then this implies more organization (less entropy), while similar shades (as between A' and B' in their final state) imply less organization (more entropy).

Still, the fact that self-organization is partially subjective does not mean that it cannot be useful. We just have to be aware that a shared description and interpretation should be agreed upon.

Complexity

Self-organizing systems are intimately related to complex systems. Again, the question is not so much whether a system is self-organizing or complex, but when is it useful to describe it as such. This is because most systems can be described as complex or not, depending on our context and purposes.

Etymologically, complexity comes from the Latin plexus, which could be translated as entwined. We can say that complex systems are those where interactions make it difficult to separate the components and study them in isolation, because of their interdependence. These interactions can generate novel information that limit predictability in an inherent way, as it is not present in initial nor boundary conditions. In other words, there is no shortcut to the future, but we have to go through all intermediate steps, as interactions partially determine the future states of the system.

For example, markets tend to be unpredictable because different agents make decisions depending on what they think other agents will decide. But since it is not possible to know what everyone will decide in advance, the predictability of markets is rather limited.

Complex systems can be confused with complicated or chaotic systems. Perhaps they will be easier to distinguish considering their opposites: complicated are the opposite of easy, chaotic (sensitive to initial conditions) are the opposite of robust, while complex systems are the opposite of separable.

Given the above notion of self-organizing systems, then all of them would also be complex systems, but not necessarily vice versa. This is because interactions are an essential aspect of self-organizing systems, which would make them complex by definition. However, we could have a description of a complex system whose elements interact but do not produce a global pattern or function we are interested in during the timeframe we are interested in. So, the narrative of complexity would be useful, but not the one of self-organization. Nevertheless, understanding complexity should be essential for the study of self-organization.

Emergence

One of the most relevant and controversial properties of complex systems is emergence. It could be seen as problematic because last century some people described emergent properties as “surprising”. So then emergence would be a measure of our ignorance, and then it would be reduced once we understood the mechanisms behind emergent properties. Also, there are different flavors of emergence, some easier to study and accept than others. But in general, emergence can be described as information that is present at one scale and not at another scale.

For example, we can have full knowledge of the properties of carbon atoms. But if we focus only on the atoms, i.e. without interactions, we will not be able to know whether they are part of a molecule of graphite, diamond, graphene, buckyballs, etc. (all composed only of carbon atoms) which have drastically different macroscopic properties. Thus, we cannot derive the conductivity, transparency, or density of these materials by looking only at the atomic properties of carbon. The difference lies precisely in how the atoms are organized, i.e. how they interact.

If emergence can be described in terms of information, Shannon’s measure can be used (understanding that we are measuring only the information that is absent from another scale). Thus, emergence would be the opposite of self-organization. This might seem contradictory, as usually emergence and self-organization are both present in complex systems8. But if we take each to its extreme, we can see that maximum emergence (information) occurs when there is (quasi)randomness, so no organization. Maximum (self-)organization occurs when entropy is minimal (no new information, and thus, no emergence). Because of this, complexity can be seen as a balance between emergence and self-organization.

Why should we use self-organizing systems?

"It is as though a puzzle could be put together simply by shaking its pieces.” —Christian De Duve

Self-organization can be used to build adaptive systems. This is useful for non-stationary problems, i.e., those that change in time. Since interactions can generate novel information, complexity often leads to non-stationarity. Thus, when a problem changes, the elements of a self-organizing system can adapt through their interactions. Then, designers do not need to specify precisely the problem beforehand, or how it will change, but just to define/regulate interactions to achieve a desired goal.

For example, if we want to improve passenger flow in public transportations systems, we cannot really change the elements of the system (passengers). Still, we can change how they interact. In 2016, we successfully implemented such a change to regulate boarding and alighting in Mexico City metro. In a similar way, we cannot change teachers in an education system. But we can change their interactions to improve learning. We cannot change politicians, but we can regulate their interactions to reduce corruption and improve efficiency. We cannot change businesspeople, but we can control their interactions to promote sustainable economic growth.

There have been many other examples of applications of self-organization in different field, and the following is only a partial enumeration.

Physics

The Industrial revolution led to the formalization of thermodynamics in the XIXth century. The second law of thermodynamics states that an isolated system will tend to thermal equilibrium. In other words, it loses organization, as heterogeneities become homogeneous, and entropy is eventually maximized. Still, non-equilibrium thermodynamics has studied how open systems can self-organize.

Lasers can be seen as self-organized light, which Hermann Haken used as an inspiration to propose the study of synergetics, which precisely studies self-organization in open systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium and is related to phase transitions, where criticality is found.

Self-organized criticality (SOC) was proposed to explain why power laws and scale-free-like distributions and fractals are so prevalent in nature. SOC was illustrated with the sandpile model, where grains accumulate and lead to avalanches with a scale-free (critical) distribution. Similarly, self-organization has been used to describe granular media.

Generalizing principles of granular media, self-organization can be used to describe and design “optimal” configurations in biological, social, and economic systems.

Chemistry

Around 1950, Boris P. Belousov was interested in a simplified version of the Krebs cycle. He found that a solution of citric acid in water with acidified bromate and yellow ceric ions produced an oscillating reaction. His attempts to publish his findings were rejected, arguing that it violated the second law of thermodynamics (which only applies to systems at equilibrium, and this system is far from equilibrium). In the 1960s, Anatol M. Zhabotinsky began working on this reaction, and only in the late 1960s and 1970s the Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction became known outside the Soviet Union. Since then, many chemical systems far from equilibrium have been studied. Some have been characterized as self-organizing, because they are able to use free energy to increase their organization.

More generally, self-organization has been used to describe pattern formation, which includes self-assembly.

Molecules are basically atoms joined by covalent bonds. Supramolecular chemistry studies chemical structures formed by weaker forces (Van Der Waals, hydrogen bonds, electrostatic charges), and can also be described in terms of self-organization.

Biology

The study of form in biology (morphogenesis) is far from new, but far from complete.

Alan Turing was one of the first to describe morphogenesis with differential equations. Morphogenesis can be seen as pattern formation with local stimulation and long-range inhibition (skins, scales), or as fractals (capillaries, neurons). These processes are more or less well understood. Still, it becomes more sophisticated for embryogenesis and regeneration, where many open questions remain.

Humberto Maturana and Francisco Varela proposed autopoiesis (self-production) to describe the emergence of living systems from complex chemistry. Autopoiesis can be seen as a special case of self-organization (to the disagreement of Maturana), because molecules self-organize to produce membranes and metabolism. Moreover, it can be argued that living systems also need information handling, self-replication, and evolvability.

There are further examples of self-organization in biology, that include firefly synchronization, ant foraging, and collective behavior.

Collective Behavior

Groups of agents can produce global patterns or behavior through local interactions. Craig Reynolds presented a simple model of boids, where agents followed three simple rules: separation (don’t crash), alignment (head to average heading of neighbors), and cohesion (go towards average position of neighbors). Varying its parameters, this simple model produces dynamic patterns similar to those of flocks, schools, herds, and swarms. It was used to animate bats and penguins in the 1992 Batman Returns film and contributed to earning Reynolds an Oscar in 1998.

A flock of boids self-organize even only with the alignment rule and added noise. It has been shown that when the number of boids increases, novel properties emerge.

Slightly more sophisticated models have been used to describe more precisely animal collective behavior.

Furthermore, similar models and rules have been used to study the self-organization of active matterand robots (see below).

Ecology

Species self-organize to produce ecological patterns. These include trophic networks (who eats who), mutualistic networks (cooperating species), and host-parasite networks.

At the biosphere level, ecosystems also self-organize. This is a central aspect of the Gaia hypothesis, which defends that our planet self-regulates its own conditions that allow life to thrive.

Self-organization can be useful to study how ecosystems can be robust, resilient, or antifragile

Communication networks

Self-organization has been useful in telecommunication networks106, as it is desirable to have the ability to self-reconfigure based on changing demands. Also, having local rules to define global functions makes them robust to potential failures or attacks of central nodes: if there is a path that is not responsive, then an alternative is sought. These principles have been used in Internet protocols, peer-to-peer networks, cellular networks, and more.

Robotics

There has been a broad variety of self-organizing robots, terrestrial, aerial, aquatic, and/or hybrid (for a review see ref. 26).

A common aspect of self-organizing robots is that there is no leader, and the collective function or pattern is the result of local interactions. Some have been inspired in the collective behavior of animals, and their potential applications are vast.

Artificial Intelligence

As mentioned in the first section of this paper, the study of self-organizing systems originated in cybernetics, which had a strong influence and overlap in the early days of artificial intelligence. Claude Shannon, William Grey Walter, Warren McCulloch and Walter Pitts contributed to both fields in their early days.

If brains can be described as self-organizing, it is no surprise that certain flavors of artificial neural networks have also been described as self-organizing. Independently on the terminology, adjustments to local weights between artificial neurons lead to an error reduction in the task of the network.

Even when their interpretation is still controversial, large language models have been useful in multiple domains. Whether describing them as self-organizing would bring any benefit or not, still remains to be seen.

Linguistics

The statistical study of linguistics became popular after Zipf. Different explanations have been put forward to try to explain statistical regularities found across languages, and in even more general contexts.

Naturally, some of these explanations focus on the evolution of language. It has been shown that a shared vocabulary and grammar140 can evolve using self-organization: individuals interact locally leading to a population converging to a shared language. This is useful not only for understanding language evolution, but also to build adaptive artificial systems. Similar mechanisms can be used in other social systems, e.g. to reach consensus.

Social Science

Individuals in a society interact in different ways. These interactions can lead to social properties, such as norms, fashions, and expectations. In turn, these social properties can guide, constrain, and promote behaviors and states of individuals.

Computers have allowed the simulation of social systems, including systematic explorations of abstract models. Combined with an increase in data availability, computational social science has been increasingly adopted by social scientists. The understanding and implications of self-organization are naturally relevant to this field.

Urbanism

It is similar to the scientific study of cities.

For example, city growth can be modeled as a self-organizing process152. Similar to the metro case study mentioned above, self-organization has been shown to efficiently and adaptively coordinate traffic lights, and is promising for regulating interactions among autonomous vehicles.

More generally, urban systems tend to be non-stationary, as conditions are changing constantly. Thus, self-organization offers a proven alternative to design urban systems that adapt as fast as their conditions change.

Philosophy

Concepts similar to self-organization can be traced to ancient Greece in Heraclitus and Aristotle and also to Buddhist philosophy.

There has been a long debate about the relationship between mechanistic principles and the purpose of systems. This question was at the origins of cybernetics. It has been argued12 that self-organization can be used to explain teleology, in accordance with Kant’s attempt from the late XVIIIth century, as purpose can also be described in terms of organization.

Also, self-organization is related to downward causation: when higher-level properties cause changes in lower-level elements. This is still debated, along with other philosophical questions related to self-organization.

Engineering

There have been several examples of self-organization applied to different areas of engineering apart from those already mentioned, such as power grids, computing, sensor networks, supply networks and production systems, bureaucracies, and more.

In general, self-organization has been a promising approach to build adaptive systems, as mentioned above. It might seem counterintuitive to speak about controlling self-organization, since we might think that self-organizing systems are difficult to regulate because of a certain autonomy of their components. Still, we can speak about a balance between control and independence, in what has been called “guided self-organization”.

Conclusions

"We can never be right, we can only be sure when we are wrong” —Richard Feynman

There are many open questions related to the scientific study of self-organizing systems. Even when their potential has been promising, they are far from being commonly used to address non-stationary problems. Could it be because of a lack of literacy in concepts related to complex systems? Might there be any conceptual or technical obstacle? Do we need further theories? Independently of the answers, these questions are worth exploring.

For example, we have yet to explore the relationship between self-organization and antifragility: the property of systems that benefit from perturbations. Self-organization seems to be correlated with antifragility, but why or how still has to be investigated. In a similar vein, a systematic exploration of the “slower is faster” effect might be useful to better understand self-organizing systems and vice versa.

Many problems and challenges we are facing — climate change, migration, urban growth, social polarization, etc. — are clearly non-stationary. It is not certain that with self-organization we will be able to improve the situation in all of them. But it is almost certain that with the current tools we have, we will not be able to make much more progress (otherwise we would have made it already). It would be imprudent not to make efforts to use the narrative of self-organization, even if for slightly improving situations related to only one of these challenges.