Showing posts with label chaos. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chaos. Show all posts

Elon Musk Just Gave Europe a Reason to Replace American Technology

Mike's Notes

Steve Blank on unintended consequences.

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Last Updated

25/10/2026

Elon Musk Just Gave Europe a Reason to Replace American Technology

By: Steve Blank
Steve Blank: 24/10/2026

Steve Blank: Steve Blank is an American entrepreneur, educator, author and speaker. He created the customer development method that launched the lean startup movement. His work has influenced modern entrepreneurship through the creation of tools and processes for new ventures which differ from those used in large companies..

...

I’ve been in London for the last month and have heard policymakers react to the wake up call Elon Musk just delivered. 

The decision of the U.S. to shut off intelligence and throttle the military version of Starlink called Starshield to Ukraine may have been a blip in the news in the US, but it has sent tremors across Europe.

For years doomsayers in the UK and Europe were worried about the U.S. having a kill switch in weapon systems and critical commercial technology that could disconnect them at will. Most people, including me, thought that it was a paranoid fantasy.

Until it happened. Seemingly on a whim of a single individual, (according to the Wall Street Journal) Elon Musk personally ordered the restrictions, and the effect was to tilt Russia’s war against Ukraine in favor of the Russians. This wasn’t an articulated U.S. foreign policy nor was it an announced act of the U.S. government. From news accounts it appears to have been a personal decision of an American CEO acting unilaterally.

Blowback

For whatever reason, whether it was to satisfy a request from the White House or some personal animosity to the Ukrainians, from Europe’s perspective, that’s almost beside the point. An American company operating critical military infrastructure was able to degrade the capability of an American partner in the middle of a war. Without warning.

The message heard loud and clear here in Europe was that the U.S. is an unreliable security and technology partner willing to throw any partner under the bus, at any time, for any reason.

The conversations I’ve heard have included, “what happens if other U.S. CEOs – Microsoft, OpenAI or Anthropic, Oracle, Palantir, or Google – decide to restrict/limit or deny access to their products? What capabilities would Europe lose if enterprise software and/or AI across Europe goes dark?” This was a laughable scenario until this week. To a lot of European decision makers, it is no longer outside the realm of possibility.

The lesson that was brought home was that no nation, Europe or elsewhere, can continue to outsource its national sovereignty and security by depending solely on US data systems or intelligence.

Unintended Consequences

Besides the political ramifications, the business ones are going to come home to roost. If every U.S. vendor is now a kill-switch risk, the allied market for that whole ecosystem shrinks. As it sinks into the European countries that the U.S, can simply shut off any technology, over time they will find and build alternatives. In the years ahead, this may cost American companies tens if not hundreds of billions of lost revenue.

Europe has been debating digital sovereignty for years. Up to this year, the idea of cloning the capabilities of the best U.S. products seemed like an insurmountable problem. And some, like low-cost access to space, still are. But today AI collapses the cost of creating sovereign software at exactly the time that geopolitical risk is increasing customers’ willingness to switch. AI makes recreating the features, functions and compatibility of Microsoft Office, Oracle, Salesforce, Palantir, Anduril, et al. within reach. AI puts it well within the capabilities of most nations. 

The U.S. spent decades establishing itself as the world’s indispensable technology supplier. A substantial part of that advantage depended on customers believing American technology would remain reliable and available.

Going forward a U.S. founder selling into European defense or government now needs an answer to “who holds the switch” before the first meeting; and European founders just got sovereignty as a sellable feature.

What was done in a fit of pique will cost the U.S. both leadership and jobs.

Graduate Student Proves a Quantum Uncertainty Principle for Fractals

Mike's Notes

This Quanta Magazine article about Alex Cohen's discovery is also available as a podcast. His work builds on the work of many who came before him.

The discovery connects to porosity (percolation?), the Uncertainty Principle via Fourier Transform, etc., and might be very useful to add to Pipi. I need to investigate it further.

Resources

References

  • Fractal uncertainty in higher dimensions v2, by Alex Cohen, 5 Oct 2024. arxiv.org/abs/2305.05022.

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Last Updated

18/10/2026

Graduate Student Proves a Quantum Uncertainty Principle for Fractals

By: Shalma Wegsman
Quanta Magazine: 12/08/2026

Shalma Wegsman: Staff Writer.

...

The math, which combines chaos, quantum theory, and infinitely complex fractal structures, has been called a “foundational result.”

Introduction

At the quantum scale, tiny particles behave in bizarre ways. One reason for this is the uncertainty principle, which says that the more you know about where a quantum particle is, the less you can know about how fast it’s moving, and vice versa. Recently, this rule got a rare upgrade.

The new uncertainty principle relates to fractals, shapes that remain equally complex no matter how much you zoom in on them.

Around a decade ago, Semyon Dyatlov, a mathematician at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, was studying whether quantum particles behave differently than ordinary particles when put into the same chaotic situations. Sometimes, an object moving chaotically can become trapped into following a fractal-like path forever. Could quantum particles do the same?

The Quanta Podcast

The uncertainty principle tells us that the more you know about where a quantum particle is, the less you can know about how fast it’s moving, and vice versa. Recently, this rule got a rare upgrade.

Quantum particles tend to spread out like waves, which blurs their exact location. To figure out whether quantum particles blur too much to take on these intricate trapped paths, Dyatlov needed a new uncertainty principle — one that could tackle fractals.

In 2016, with key ideas from Jean Bourgain — a renowned mathematician who died shortly after this work — Dyatlov proved the fractal uncertainty principle for one-dimensional fractals, which look like jagged lines. These lines can represent the paths taken by objects moving in two dimensions, like balls traveling around a billiard table. That fall, Dyatlov and Bourgain gathered mathematicians from around the world in New Jersey for a workshop, hoping to extend the proof to higher dimensions. An extended proof could be used to study the three-dimensional world and would become a universal mathematical tool in its own right.

But the task proved too difficult. By the end of the workshop, “nobody really believed that it could be done,” said one of the attendees, Frédéric Naud, a mathematician from Sorbonne University.


Alex Cohen’s proof of the fractal uncertainty principle has already proven influential across math.

Hertz Foundation

It wasn’t until years later that Alex Cohen, while a doctoral student at MIT, finally made a breakthrough. In a paper published in 2025 in the Annals of Mathematics, widely considered to be the field’s top journal, he extended the fractal uncertainty principle to all higher dimensions. The result became Cohen’s thesis and earned him an assistant professorship at New York University at the age of 25.

The fractal uncertainty principle is “a foundational result,” said Peter Sarnak of the Institute for Advanced Study — “a pretty remarkable achievement for a guy in his thesis.”

Already, this principle has revealed a new deep way that quantum particles differ from classical ones.

Pinball Wizard

Though the uncertainty principle may seem strange in the context of particles, it can also crop up in less mysterious forms. The briefer a sound, the less sure you can be about the tones that make it up. A short radar pulse can accurately locate a submarine, but it takes a longer signal to determine where it’s moving.

All these uncertainty principles, including the quantum one, arise from the same mathematical source. This deeper mathematical uncertainty principle applies broadly to any function — or any curve, roughly speaking, no matter how bumpy and wild it looks. It comes from an equation invented in the 19th century called the Fourier transform. Named for the Frenchman Joseph Fourier, the Fourier transform decomposes any function into a set of simple waves, each with a different frequency, or tone. Add those simple waves together, and you’ll get back your original function.

Mark Belan/Quanta Magazine

The uncertainty principle comes built in. A simple sine wave, which spreads infinitely throughout space, has one definite frequency, so its Fourier transform is a single peak. But the snap of a snare drum looks like a pulse as it travels through the air. Its Fourier transform has a wide spread of frequencies — a sound with no discernible pitch.

In general, the narrower a function, the more spread out its Fourier transform must be, and vice versa. Or, in other words, the more certain you are about where a function peaks in space, the less certain you can be about its frequency, or how it’s changing in time.

In quantum mechanics, a particle is described mathematically as a wave, with peaks in places where it’s most likely to be found. The Fourier transform of that wave describes the particle’s motion. This is why a quantum particle’s position and momentum can’t both be precisely known at once: They are related by a Fourier transform.

But what if you take the Fourier transform of a function that looks like a fractal?

To make sense of the question, it helps to imagine a simple kind of fractal: Start with a line and cut it into three segments. Then delete the center segment. Repeat the process: Cut each remaining segment into three, remove the center, and so on. The result is a fractal set called the Cantor set. The set has the feature of being what mathematicians call porous — it’s full of holes, like a sponge, at every scale.

Now imagine that this Cantor set lives on the x-axis, and at each point on this set is a peak representing a frequency.

The fractal uncertainty principle says that if you add together waves of that fractal-like set of frequencies, the resulting curve cannot also look like a fractal — it cannot be porous. The reverse also holds: If you take the Fourier transform of a fractal-like function, the result cannot be a fractal-like set of frequencies.

Such fractal-like functions might sound hard to come by. But they pop up when mathematicians study what happens to quantum particles — or waves more generally — in chaotic situations.

Like a ball bouncing around a pinball machine, an object experiencing chaos will often travel erratically around the entire space. “If you look at your path, it’s going to look like a random scribble,” said Elena Kim, a mathematician at Harvard University.

But in rare instances, an object can find stability in the chaos. In a flat pinball machine, a ball could stay trapped bouncing between three bumpers forever. The ball wouldn’t repeat the exact same path, but it would stay confined between the bumpers, bouncing off a slightly different spot each time. And if you marked each spot where the ball hits each bumper, you’d find that the marks make up something like the Cantor set.

This collection of marks is also called fractal dust. Most balls that hit the bumpers will fly off. “This is the dust that’s left,” said Maciej Zworski of the University of California, Berkeley.


Elena Kim, a mathematician at Harvard University, has used the fractal uncertainty principle to understand chaotic systems in unconventional spaces.

Steph Stevens

Unlike a pinball, however, a wave cannot be confined to a fractal-like path, according to the fractal uncertainty principle. If you tried to trap a wave between three bumpers, it would leak out and escape.

“So there’s something different about quantum and classical [chaos],” Dyatlov said. “And one ingredient that you can try to use for that would be uncertainty principles.”

Unfinished Knowledge

Cohen arrived at MIT in 2021 a self-described “young, energetic harmonic analyst” — harmonic analysis being a field of mathematics dedicated to studying functions and their Fourier transforms. As a doctoral student, he sat in Dyatlov’s talks about the fractal uncertainty principle. “He would end every talk being like, ‘We don’t have a higher-dimensional fractal uncertainty principle. I wish we had that!’” Cohen said. “I was like, OK, this seems like a fun thing to work on.”

His enthusiasm was soon checked. For one thing, mathematicians already knew of many situations where the fractal uncertainty principle would fail in higher dimensions. Cohen’s first challenge was to come up with a clean way to avoid these cases.

The typical requirement of being a fractal is to be porous — meaning that there are holes everywhere you look. The two-dimensional fractal called the Sierpiński carpet is an example; it’s built by dividing a square into a grid of smaller squares and removing the middle square, repeatedly. But while this shape has many holes, it’s also possible to draw a straight line that is fully contained within it.

Lines like these spell trouble for the fractal uncertainty principle. The Fourier transform of a vertical line returns a horizontal line, and vice versa. In two or more dimensions, both of these lines count as fractals — that’s because a line takes up no area and leaves most of the surrounding space empty, which satisfies the condition of having many holes. So any fractal that contains uninterrupted lines breaks the fractal uncertainty principle.

Cohen needed a new, more stringent kind of porosity. He came up with what he called “line porosity” — any line you draw on the fractal should encounter many holes. His proof excludes any fractals that don’t have this condition, including the typical Sierpiński carpet, but a modified Sierpiński carpet with much more empty space satisfies the rule.

With his assumptions in place, Cohen moved on to the actual proof. He quickly realized that this was unlike any Fourier-related problem he had worked on before. “I tried using all my tools to prove the fractal uncertainty principle, and none of them even came remotely close to working,” he said.

Feeling stuck, he went back to Dyatlov and Bourgain’s proof of the principle in one dimension and sought to understand exactly how it worked.

Dyatlov and Bourgain used an uncommon method in their proof. It involved isolating one peak from a fractal-like function at a time and showing that the Fourier transform of that peak would spread out. Doing this for all peaks, and considering how the Fourier transforms would add together, they proved that the total Fourier transform could never equal zero often enough to form a fractal — there wouldn’t be enough holes.


Jean Bourgain, seen here in 2012, was an author on more than 500 papers spanning much of mathematics.

George M. Bergman

Isolating each peak required constructing a very specific function that, when multiplied by the original fractal-like function, would pull out just the peak and be close to zero everywhere else. This is called a damping function, and it needs to be perfectly tailor-made to work. “This is a challenging thing to construct,” Cohen said. But he knew that if he could do it in higher dimensions, he could unlock the entire proof.

Cohen consulted Dyatlov about his plan to construct this special function. Before Bourgain died in late 2018, he too struggled with this problem, and he shared his unpublished notes with Dyatlov. Now, Dyatlov shared them with Cohen. “Bourgain was a legendary analyst,” Cohen said. Reading the note felt like “receiving this unfinished knowledge from him.”

The notes contained exactly the hint Cohen needed. “It just blew my mind,” Cohen said. “It really unlocked the problem for me.”

Before reading Bourgain’s note, Cohen had a few ideas for how to construct the damping function, but they were highly complicated and precise, like the designs for building a house brick by brick. The note revealed an unexpected way to do it. It involved taking a detour into complex analysis — the study of functions of imaginary numbers, which include the square root of negative 1. This detour allowed Cohen to build a much more flexible object, which could then be used to construct the damping function indirectly.

Semyon Dyatlov, a mathematician at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, proved the one-dimensional fractal uncertainty principle in 2016.

Xuwen Zhu

Armed with this insight, Cohen then needed to find a way to create just the right version of this flexible object to produce a proper damping function. “To construct something like this that has very specific properties is highly nontrivial. It’s delicate,” said Wilhelm Schlag(opens a new tab) of Yale University, with whom Cohen studied as an undergraduate. “In two dimensions, nobody knew how to do that, and Alex came up with a brilliant construction of such a thing.”

Cohen stunned the math world when he posted the proof online in May 2023.

“His paper is very beautiful, and it made a huge impression,” Schlag said.

Later, Cohen found out that the trick revealed to him in Bourgain’s note wasn’t actually a secret. The method came from a well-known theorem from the 1960s called the Beurling-Malliavin theorem. “I thought that I had this special inside knowledge,” Cohen said. “I found out later that everyone in the field already knew about this strategy.”

Had he known that his insider tip was no secret, Cohen might have given up too soon. “I think I had a lot of confidence because I didn’t know other people had tried it,” he said.

Funhouse Chaos

Soon after Cohen shared his result, other mathematicians started using it to unlock new proofs about how waves behave in chaotic situations.

In nature, chaos appears in systems like turbulent water and the weather — situations where objects that start close together quickly end up in drastically different places. These systems are too complex to describe mathematically. Instead, mathematicians seeking to study chaos often turn to an odd kind of space that has chaos built in, called hyperbolic space.

In hyperbolic space, parallel lines diverge dramatically, getting farther from each other as you follow their paths. (It’s the opposite of a sphere, where parallel lines converge.) This means that small separations between objects can become huge down the line — the telltale sign of chaos.

“Of course, this looks nothing like predicting weather,” Dyatlov said. But hyperbolic spaces offer mathematicians a simple chaotic system to explore. “We study what we can handle, and we isolate phenomena. That’s a common thing to do in math.”

In 2017, Dyatlov and Long Jin from Tsinghua University in Beijing used the one-dimensional fractal uncertainty principle to prove that you can never trap a wave on a hyperbolic surface; it will always spread out until it touches every corner.

To do so, they imagined a region on the surface that a wave never enters, even after having infinite time to spread out. When they removed all the trajectories that entered that region, what remained was the same sort of fractal dust that appeared in the pinball example. Since the fractal uncertainty principle forbids a wave from being trapped on a fractal, no such region can exist — the wave must spread everywhere.

In 2025, Kim, along with Nicholas Miller(opens a new tab) of the University of Oklahoma, used Cohen’s higher-dimensional fractal uncertainty principle to extend the results to hyperbolic spaces of higher dimensions. “That’s the most spectacular application of the higher-dimensional one so far,” Sarnak said.

Many mathematicians are hoping to prove that waves experiencing chaos not only spread out completely but also spread out exactly evenly over the entire space. This is the statement of a famous 1994 conjecture by Sarnak and Zeév Rudnick, who were interested in the problem’s connections to number theory. “This is a huge open conjecture,” Kim said. “It’s a really difficult problem that a lot of people care about.”

Proving this conjecture would show that waves experiencing chaos move in ways that look surprising and random at small scales but are simple at the macroscopic level.

“It’s like those Monet paintings,” Dyatlov said. “When you go very close, they have a lot of microscopic features. There are a lot of brushstrokes.” But if you stand back and squint, “it just looks uniformly colored.” This is different from classical chaos, where objects can get stuck in complicated and detailed paths.

The impact of the fractal uncertainty principle won’t stop with quantum chaos. The tools of Fourier analysis are used in many fields of mathematics and form the backbone of any industry that relies on signal processing. “It’s a foundational fact about Fourier analysis,” Sarnak said. “We haven’t seen all the applications yet.”

No posts for a wee while

Mike's Notes

I was on holiday for the last few weeks and am back now. There will be no blog posts, newsletters or meetings until Pipi Core is back up and running.

Update 27/05/2026

Lots of surprises. Making rapid progress. The peace and quiet are bliss.

Update 31/05/2026

The problem and solution are how things are named. Pipi auto-generates thousands of code names using multiple pattern languages, and all the naming conventions require many minor fixes for several unexpected reasons after migrating from a developer laptop to a production server environment. Everything else is absolutely fine.

Other naming problems are also being solved now, including:

  • The rapid development of Boxlang by Ortus has brought forward another challenge. Pipi 10 will be migrated to run on top of Boxlang in 2027 to support multiple languages, including C++, CFML, COBOL, Go, Java, JavaScript, PHP, Python, Rust, etc.
  • Future integration with cloud-based LLMs.
  • Future integrations with Office365, Google Workspace, Zoho, LibreOffice, etc.

The common solution is to create standardised naming systems that are simple, stable, robust, schema-based, versioned, self-documenting, and extensible to meet unanticipated future needs.

This is done by replacing code-based naming rules with database-driven ones that can be easily edited in the future via an admin UI.

90% of these names are internal, hidden in the closed core, and how they work and what they are will not be discussed here. The rest will be publicly and fully documented as part of the open-source workspaces for developers to work with.

Update 02/06/2026

I'm changing the disclosure boundary between the Pipi closed-core and open-source workspaces. Previously, "disclose everything unless there is a security reason not to". This is now changed to "disclose on the basis of need to know".

Closed-core accounts for 90% and open-source workspaces for 10% of lines of code, databases, etc.

This will reduce the documentation burden, given Pipi's vast scale. So, the open-source workspaces will be fully shared and documented on GitHub, etc, without restriction. This includes;

  • Standards schema
  • Ontologies
  • Parameters
  • Laws of physics
  • HTML + CSS
  • Algorithms
  • Module DDD models
  • Workflow diagrams
  • Documentation
  • API schema
  • UI code
  • etc

This also means some existing technical documentation about the closed-core will become hidden and only available internally.

Update 07/06/2026

Pipi Core is the IDE used to edit Pipi Core (AKA: which came first, the chicken or the egg?). Temporary UIs have been created and are being used across multiple engines to edit the names in use. This is much faster than directly editing data, which had to be done initially. The next step will be turning auto-generation back on. Once that's done, temporary UIs will be used to build permanent UIs. More automation will then be enabled via the UIs, and so on, as Pipi Core builds itself with a human in the loop.

Update 08/06/2026

The list of code cases available to use now for auto-generated naming, I/O translation, etc with examples, includes;

  • camelCase: userProfilePicture
  • kebab-case: user-profile-picture
  • PascalCase: UserProfilePicture
  • snake_case: user_profile_picture
  • SCREAMING_SNAKE_CASE: USER_PROFILE_PICTURE
  • Train-Case: User-Profile-Picture
  • flatcase: userprofilepicture
  • UPPER-CASE-KEBAB-CASE: USER-PROFILE-PICTURE
  • Sentence case: User profile picture
  • Title Case: User Profile Picture
  • middot·case: user·profile·picture
  • dot.case: user.profile.picture
  • UPPER CASE: USER PROFILE PICTURE
  • lowercase: user profile picture

Update 12/06/20026

Checking that these changes to variable names and internal messaging do not clash with the Gödel Machine.

Update 17/06/2026

The DevOps Engine (dvp) has unexpectedly proven to be critical to solving this puzzle. Mostly fixed last night. Watching the rather excellent live Google talk, Beyond the GPU: Maximising goodput with self-healing AI infrastructure, this morning has given me valuable insights into how to fix the remaining issues by reviewing Google HPC YAML files. 😎😎 Sometimes insights come from the strangest places.

Update 01/07/2026

The main work now is rapidly configuring Pipi for production and full autonomous automation. Using Google Search AI Mode (Gemini) and then Grammarly Pro makes the work easier and 100x faster.

  • I have decided to have Pipi re-render the many Ajabbi draft public websites with the new and missing developer information. (20K pages)
  • The website's .robot.txt file will then be unlocked to enable search engines.
  • The HTML will be updated to make it easier for AI to read.
  • This blog will be imported into Pipi, cleaned up, re-exported from Pipi, and published to Blogger via the API.
  • The new posts created in Pipi will return to A Sandy Beach to discuss something already built rather than being built.

Update 02/07/2026

The DevOps and IaC engines are getting rapid data model overhauls. The IaC engine is a great test for the variable names. I'm building a capability into Pipi to autonomously and automatically run OpenTofu and Ansible, initially targeting the Pipi Data Centre, then GCP and AWS for deployments. It's going very well and making rapid progress.

Update 05/07/2026

Pipi will initially run the open-source enterprise applications on Google Cloud Run and Google Cloud Storage (GCS). The code is complete and will be very low-cost to run, giving Ajabbi, a bootstrapping-purpose startup, a very long runway.

Update 18/07/2026

The job has now shifted to configuring, networking and deploying many physical servers. Installing software, including Pipi, labelling cables and rack gear, throwing out junk, tidying, etc., leaving nothing to chance. Shipping delays are holding up part deliveries.

Update 28/07/2026

Most of the equipment has arrived, and the small data centre setup is coming together. More deliveries later this week. It's already running a lot better and is much more productive.

Update 31/07/2026

Work on Pipi has reached a tipping point or system phase change as Pipi takes over tasks using autonomous automation. Pipi now has deadlines, not me. Soon it will set the deadlines. It's now a downhill run; daily posts from me resume tomorrow, and much more will come.

In hindsight. This whole project has been systematic trial and error, spending 10 years learning how to crack a hard problem.

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Last Updated

31/07/2026

No posts for a wee while

By: Mike Peters
On a Sandy Beach: 15/05/2026

Mike is the inventor and architect of Pipi and the founder of Ajabbi.

I was on a no-coding holiday for the last few weeks to clear my mind, and it has been great. I am back on the job today.

Suspended

Until the closed-source Pipi Core is back up and running 100% on autopilot, 10x faster, the following are suspended.

  • New posts "On a Sandy Beach
  • All newsletters, including the weekly Friday Report and the monthly Ajabbi Research Newsletter.
  • The fortnightly online Open R&D meeting.

Rapid refocus

  • A new developer area with five coding screens, designed to be more productive for hypervisual learners.
  • A better library has been set up for my A4 drawings in ring binders, the many reference books I use, and more bookshelves are on the way.
  • The server rack has been moved to a better location.
  • The light levels have been adjusted.
  • A big office tidy is almost done. An office-work-only desk has yet to be set up with a cat bed included.
  • A separate area with no screens for the happy cat, coffee, music, reading and drawing.

Less is more

Minimise screen time to be more productive at work. The new setup is also much less tiring.

Get the job done

The good thing is that, with a holiday and lots of drawing, I now have mental clarity about what needs fixing and how to fix it. Mainly, quite delicate changes here and there, organised into a list of steps. Now, I need to concentrate on one thing only: go as fast as possible, without meetings, post-deadlines, phone calls, or other distractions.

How

1. Use an AI workforce

Be the architect, and AI fills in the dots to make it happen.

Use Google Search AI mode (Gemini) to generate 99% of the code in one-page chunks (including references) to copy and paste, then manually change the variable names and SQL. Careful, test everything, resulting in 100x faster progress. Know how everything works and rapidly raise personal skill level.

2. Then build a cathedral

Make a wooden scale model of a cathedral for the builders. Google Search AI mode (Gemini) makes each brick, and Pipi Core assembles the bricks into floors, arches, walls, and vaults...

Speed is king

With the 100x coding productivity gains from Google Search AI mode (Gemini), plus the 10x10x10x speedup of Pipi Core currently underway over the next few months, what previously took a year will be done in hours and better.

Phase transitions

Once these initial migration issues from laptop to server are resolved, further transitions can be anticipated as the number of engines rapidly increases beyond 20. Increasing the number of engines slowly changes the whole system's behaviour from deterministic to probabilistic and adaptive.

Here is a partial list of transitions expected as the number of engines increases from 0 to 200. The actual numbers are a bit of a guess.

  • 20 engines enable Pipi 9 Core in a simple, deterministic structure.
  • 40 engines enable a workspace with a UI for administering Pipi Core.
  • 60 engines enable self-generation of user documentation.
  • 80 engines enable REPL and IAC (infrastructure-as-code).
  • 100 engines enable Workspaces for different user accounts.
  • Different Pipi 9 editions are made with the same engines, which recombine differently in response to the external environment.
  • And so on until...
  • 200 engines self-organise into a multi-layered complex fluid structure with probabilistic behaviour and emergent properties, as engines also act as agents.
  • 200+ engines enable Pipi 10 to interact with externally cloud-hosted LLMs, combining the very different strengths of both.

The Coming Crisis: Fingers of Instability

Mike's Notes

An excellent description of what a critical state is, using a real-world example: the global financial system. Critical state also applies to other phenomena, including earthquakes.

I have read the two excellent books by Buchanan and Taleb in the references. I must also read Sornette's book.

I think everything in the universe has its time in the sun, with a birth, existence, and death, often followed by a transformation into its opposite. The laws of science apply to everything, including social systems like capitalism, trees, planets, schools of music, cars, etc.

Resources

References

  • Why Catastrophes Happen, by Mark Buchanan.
  • Antifragility, by Nassim Taleb.
  • Why Stock Markets Crash, by Didier Sornette.

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Last Updated

02/03/2026

The Coming Crisis: Fingers of Instability

By: John Maudlin
Thoughts from the Frontline: 28/02/2026

John Maudlin is Co-Founder, Mauldin Economics.

This letter is a little different. I am indeed working on my book about what I believe is a coming crisis by reviewing five different cycle theories. They all arrive at a similar scenario from  different points of view, but they all suggest a crisis occurring sometime around the end of this decade or perhaps shortly thereafter. And all for different reasons. One background element ties them together, which is the subject of today’s letter.

This is essentially a shortened first chapter. To long time readers, that background connection is our old friend: sandpiles and fingers of instability. but with a lot of edits and additions. Jumping in…

Ubiquity, Complexity Theory, and Sandpiles

With five different views about the coming crisis, which one is right? Do they conflict or reinforce each other? The correct answer is they’re all connected, but not in obvious ways. And in the end, it makes no difference which one is “more” right. The results will be the same. Understanding this below-the-radar connection is key to making sure you, your family, community and country all get through this to what will be the inevitable positive conclusion, even if it is a very bumpy ride.

We are going to start our exploration with excerpts from an important book by Mark Buchanan, called Why Catastrophes Happen. I HIGHLY recommend it to those of you who, like me, are trying to understand the complexity of the markets, economy and politics/society. The book is about chaos theory, complexity theory and critical states. It is written in layman’s terms. There are no equations, just easy-to-grasp, well-written stories and analogies. But it gives us an essential framework to understand the coming storms.

As kids, we all had the fun of going to the beach and playing in the sand. Remember taking your plastic buckets and making sand piles? Slowly pouring the sand into an ever-bigger pile, until one side of the pile started an avalanche?

Imagine, Buchanan says, dropping one grain of sand after another onto a table. A pile soon develops. Eventually, just one grain starts an avalanche. Usually it’s a small one, but sometimes it builds on itself and seems like a side of the pile collapses. Why?

Well, in 1987 three physicists named Per Bak, Chao Tang, and Kurt Weisenfeld began to play the sandpile game in their lab at Brookhaven National Laboratory in New York. Now, piling one grain of sand at a time is a slow process, so they wrote a computer program to do it. Not as much fun, but a whole lot faster. Not that they really cared about sandpiles. They were interested in what are called nonequilibrium systems.

They learned some interesting things. What is the typical size of an avalanche? After a huge number of tests with millions of grains of sand, they found there is no typical size. "Some involved a single grain; others, ten, a hundred or a thousand. Still others were pile-wide cataclysms involving millions that brought nearly the whole mountain down. At any time, literally anything, it seemed, might be just about to occur." The piles were chaotic in their unpredictability.

Now, let’s read this next paragraph from Buchanan slowly. It is important, as it creates a mental image that may help us understand the organization of financial markets, the world economy and society (emphasis mine).

"To find out why (such unpredictability) should show up in their sandpile game, Bak and colleagues next played a trick with their computer. Imagine peering down on the pile from above, and coloring it in according to its steepness. Where it is relatively flat and stable, color it green; where steep and, in avalanche terms, ‘ready to go,’ color it red. What do you see? They found that at the outset the pile looked mostly green, but that, as the pile grew, the green became infiltrated with ever more red. With more grains, the scattering of red danger spots grew until a dense skeleton of instability ran through the pile. Here then was a clue to its peculiar

The Critical State

Something only a math nerd could love? Scientists refer to this as a “critical state.” The term can mean the point at which water goes to ice or steam, or the moment that critical mass induces a nuclear reaction, etc. It is the point at which something triggers a change in the basic nature or character of the object or group. Thus (and very casually for all you physicists), we refer to something being in a critical state (or use the term critical mass) when there is the opportunity for significant change.

"But to physicists, [the critical state] has always been seen as a kind of theoretical freak sideshow, a devilishly unstable and unusual condition that arises only under the most exceptional circumstances [in highly controlled experiments]… In the sandpile game, however, a critical state seemed to arise naturally through the mindless sprinkling of grains."

Thus, they asked themselves, could this phenomenon show up elsewhere? In the earth’s crust, triggering earthquakes, or as wholesale changes in an ecosystem – or as a stock market crash?

"Could the special organization of the critical state explain why the world at large seems so susceptible to unpredictable upheavals?" Could it help us understand not just earthquakes, but why cartoons in a third-rate paper in Denmark could cause world-wide riots?

Buchanan concludes in his opening chapter:

"There are many subtleties and twists in the story … but the basic message, roughly speaking, is simple: The peculiar and exceptionally unstable organization of the critical state does indeed seem to be ubiquitous in our world. Researchers in the past few years have found its mathematical fingerprints in the workings of all the upheavals I’ve mentioned so far [earthquakes, eco-disasters, market crashes], as well as in the spreading of epidemics, the flaring of traffic jams, the patterns by which instructions trickle down from managers to workers in the office, and in many other things. At the heart of our story, then, lies the discovery that networks of things of all kinds – atoms, molecules, species, people, and even ideas – have a marked tendency to organize themselves along similar lines. On the basis of this insight, scientists are finally beginning to fathom what lies behind tumultuous events of all sorts, and to see patterns at work where they have never seen them before."

Going back to the sandpile game, you find that as you double the number of grains of sand involved in an avalanche, the probability of an avalanche becomes 2.14 times more likely. We find something similar in earthquakes. In terms of energy, the data indicate that earthquakes become four times less likely each time you double the energy they release. Mathematicians refer to this as a "power law," a special mathematical pattern that stands out in contrast to the overall complexity of the earthquake process.

Fingers of Instability

So, what happens in our game?

"…after the pile evolves into a critical state, many grains rest just on the verge of tumbling, and these grains link up into ‘fingers of instability’ of all possible lengths. While many are short, others slice through the pile from one end to the other. The chain reaction triggered by a single grain might lead to an avalanche of any size whatsoever, depending on whether that grain fell on a short, intermediate or long finger of instability."

Now, we come to a critical point in our discussion of the critical state. Again, read this with not just markets but our entire society in mind:

"In this simplified setting of the sandpile, the power law also points to something else: the surprising conclusion that even the greatest of events have no special or exceptional causes. After all, every avalanche, large or small, starts out the same way, when a single grain falls and makes the pile just slightly too steep at one point. What makes one avalanche much larger than another has nothing to do with its original cause, and nothing to do with some special situation in the pile just before it starts. Rather, it has to do with the perpetually unstable organization of the critical state, which makes it always possible for the next grain to trigger an avalanche of any size."

This concept applies to not just financial markets, but to how we organize our political systems, generational differences, geopolitics and war, the over-production of elites and even how information is interpreted. They ALL connect. The Great Recession was a financial crisis. COVID-19 was a health crisis with a financial crisis and added political crises which further divided a fractious world.

We all see pressures building up in many different aspects of society. They each create their own fingers of instability. But in the sandpile of life, they are connected. 

Now, let’s couple this idea with a few other concepts. First, Hyman Minsky (who should have been a Nobel laureate) points out that stability leads to instability. The more comfortable we get with a given condition or trend, the longer it will persist and then when the trend fails, the more dramatic the correction.

The problem with long term macroeconomic stability is that it tends to produce unstable financial arrangements. Just as long term geopolitical or social stability will eventually produce a critical state. If we believe that tomorrow and next year will be the same as last week and last year, we are more willing to add debt or postpone savings in favor of current consumption. Or ignore any of a number of societal crises. Thus, says Minsky, the longer the period of stability, the higher the potential risk for even greater instability when market participants or a country’s citizens must change their behavior.

Relating this to our sandpile, the longer a critical state builds up in an economy, or in other words, the more "fingers of instability" are allowed to develop connections to other fingers of instability, the greater the potential for a serious "avalanche."

Therefore (and ironically), the longer a crisis takes to come about, the bigger the repercussions. One of the conclusions at the end of the book will be that we simply don’t know when the avalanche will be triggered. The US is such a large and wealthy country, and many of the rest of the shirts in the global laundry are just as (or even more) dirty, that global money might come to the US as a safe haven, thus prolonging our “stability” as the sandpile grows to an ever more critical state.

We Are Managing Uncertainty

Or, maybe, a series of smaller shocks lessens the long reach of the fingers of instability, giving a paradoxical rise to even more apparent stability. This is the thrust of Nassim Taleb’s book, Antifragility.

“People often think that the opposite of fragility is durability. If something is fragile, that means it’s easily broken. Therefore, if something isn’t easily broken, logically that should mean it’s the opposite of fragile. However, there’s another step beyond. Since there isn’t an established English word for such a thing, [Nassim] calls it antifragility—not just the lack of fragility, but its true opposite.

“We live in an unpredictable world. The models and theories we use to try to predict the future invariably fall apart as unforeseen events prove them wrong and, in turn, destroy the plans we made based on those models. Clearly, systems based on such flawed models are bound to be fragile—easily broken.

“The solution to this problem is antifragility. Instead of a never-ending search for more accurate models and better predictions, all we need to do is make sure that we’re in a position to benefit from uncertainty and volatility instead of being harmed by it.

“This is hardly a new concept; nature exhibits antifragility in almost everything she creates. An organism can strengthen itself through minor damage in the form of exercise. In a similar sense, a species can strengthen itself through minor damage in the form of natural selection, which leads to evolution.

“However, unlike nature, humans try to control the world through models and rules. We think we can perfectly predict the future and avoid any shocks that would cause our fragile systems to fall apart. We think we can outsmart millions of years of evolution and antifragility, and we’re almost invariably wrong.

“Instead of trying to predict the future, we should assume that there will be major events we can’t see coming—because, sooner or later, there will be. If we’re prepared for them, using the methods and practices explained in this book, we can make sure that such events work to our advantage instead of hurting us. By avoiding fragility and embracing antifragility wherever possible, we can set ourselves up to thrive in an uncertain world.”

Another way to think about it is the way Didier Sornette, a French geophysicist, has described financial crashes in his wonderful book, Why Stock Markets Crash (the math, though, was far beyond me!). He wrote:

"[T]he specific manner by which prices collapsed is not the most important problem: a crash occurs because the market has entered an unstable phase and any small disturbance or process may have triggered the instability. Think of a ruler held up vertically on your  the instantaneous cause of the collapse is secondary."

When things are unstable, it isn’t the last grain of sand that causes the pile to collapse or the slight breeze that causes the ruler on your fingertip to fall. Those are the "proximate" causes. They’re the closest reasons at hand for the collapse. The real reason, though, is the "remote" cause, the farthest reason. The farthest reason is the underlying instability of the system itself.

This is one reason we get "fat tails" in financial markets. In theory, returns on investment should look like a smooth bell curve, with the ends tapering off into nothing. According to the theoretical distribution, events that deviate from the mean by five or more standard deviations ("5-sigma events") are extremely rare, with 10 or more sigma being practically impossible – at least in theory.

However, under certain circumstances, such events are more common than expected; 15-sigma or even rarer events have happened in the world of investing. Examples include Long Term Capital in the late 1990s and any of a dozen bubbles in history. Because the real-world commonality of high-sigma events is much greater than in theory, the distribution is "fatter" at the extremes ("tails") than one would expect.

This holds true in geopolitics, too. The unthinkable sometimes happens. Before World War I began, no one thought it would come to war. Peace had been the rule for 40 years. Surely, mankind had evolved. Until…

Thus, the build-up of critical states, those fingers of instability, is perpetuated even as, and precisely because, we hedge risks. We try to "stabilize" the risks we see, shoring them up with derivatives, emergency plans, insurance, treaties, alliances, political change and all manner of risk-control procedures. And by doing so, the economic and social systems can absorb body blows that would have been severe only a few decades ago. We distribute the risks, and their effects, throughout the system.

Yet as we reduce the known risks, we sow the seeds for the next 10-sigma event. It is the improbable, unseen risks that will create the next real crisis. It is not that the fingers of instability have been removed from the equation, it is that they lurk in different places, not yet visible.

A Stable Disequilibrium

We end up in a critical state that Paul McCulley calls "stable disequilibrium." It has "players" all over the world, tied inextricably together in a vast dance through investment, debt, derivatives, trade, globalization, international business and finance. Each player works hard to maximize their own personal outcome and reduce their exposure to "fingers of instability."

The longer we go on, asserts Minsky, the more likely and violent any "avalanche" is. The more the fingers of instability can build, the more that state of stable disequilibrium can go critical on us.

It's all connected. We are building an unstable sandpile and it will come crashing down at some point. Then we will have to dig our way out.

The good news is we have seen this movie before. And after the crisis, a new period of stability and growth follows, for at least another 50-80 years. In my upcoming book we will look for ways to get through to that happier future.

Scottsdale, Houston, Los Angeles, West Palm Beach, Boston and New York

Next week I fly to Houston where I am on an economic advisory board for the Rice University economics department. Then I will be in LA meeting with the Inner Circle, exploring several companies that are literally changing the technology landscape of defense and energy. We will be opening clinics in West Palm Beach and the DC area, hopefully in early April. Construction has begun. Then NYC and Boston.

I finish this from Scottsdale where Dr. Roizen and I are attending the 2026 Functional Longevity Summit, along with 3-400 doctors. The organizers have asked us to talk about Therapeutic Plasma Exchange. For those interested in staying healthy for longer, Mike and many experts now believe the first part of your journey should begin with therapeutic plasma exchange. Seriously. You can learn more at Lifespan-Edge.com (note the dash). If you haven’t, you really need to read our main research report. The research and other information can make a real difference in your life. You can set up a discovery call to talk with our doctors about the procedure and see if it is right for you. As well as look at a lot more research.

And with that, I will hit the send button. Have a great week.

Your thinking how to make my body antifragile analyst,

Mathematicians Crack a Fractal Conjecture on Chaos

Mike's Notes

Very useful.

Here is a summary generated by Google.

"Harmonic analysis of Gaussian Multiplicative Chaos (GMC) on the circle involves studying its Fourier coefficients, revealing key properties like its near-certainty of being a Rajchman measure, meaning coefficients vanish at high frequencies, and connecting to random matrix theory (Circular-β-ensembles) and spectral theory, with recent work proving exact Fourier dimensions and describing convergence laws for scaled coefficients. This field investigates how random multiplicative structures on the circle behave under Fourier transformation, revealing spectral properties and connections to number theory and random matrix models, with significant recent advances in understanding critical and subcritical phases.

Key Concepts & Findings:

    • Rajchman Property: GMC on the circle almost surely becomes a Rajchman measure, meaning its Fourier coefficients 𝜇̂(𝑛) tend to zero as the frequency 𝑛 → ∞.
    • Fourier Dimensions: Researchers establish precise Fourier dimensions (how fast coefficients decay) for various GMC models, confirming conjectures and linking to spectral properties.
    • Connection to Random Matrices: There's a deep link between GMC on the circle and the Circular-β-Ensemble (CBE) from random matrix theory, with holomorphic analogues (HMC) also studied.
    • Spectral Approach: Using random orthogonal polynomials and spectral methods allows for efficient analysis of GMC properties, including its support's Hausdorff dimension.
    • Convergence Laws: Normalized Fourier coefficients are shown to converge in distribution to specific random variables (e.g., complex normal) in certain phases (L1-phase).
    • Critical & Subcritical Phases: Significant focus is on subcritical 𝛾 = √2 and critical 𝛾 = √2 regimes, with new methods improving understanding, especially for the unit interval and circle.

Recent Research Directions:

    • Proving exact Fourier decay rates and dimensions for various GMC models (e.g., critical GMC).
    • Developing unified approaches for classical multiplicative chaos measures.
    • Studying the holomorphic analogue (HMC) and its convergence properties.
    • Exploring connections to number theory and large random matrices.

In essence, researchers use harmonic analysis tools (like Fourier coefficients) to understand the random, fractal-like structures of GMC on the circle, revealing underlying deterministic patterns and links to other mathematical areas."

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Last Updated

16/12/2025

Mathematicians Crack a Fractal Conjecture on Chaos

By: Lyndie Chiou
Scientific American: 9/12/2025

Lyndie Chiou is a scientist, a science writer and founder of ZeroDivZero, a science conference website. Her writing has also appeared in Sky & Telescope. Follow her on X @lyndie_chiou.

A type of chaos found in everything from prime numbers to turbulence can unify a pair of unrelated ideas, revealing a mysterious, deep connection that disappears without randomness.

The world may seem orderly, but randomness and chaos shape everything in the universe, from enormous galaxies all the way down to subatomic particles. Take a chilly window sheeting over with ice: even one oddly shaped snowflake can exert an influence on the final frosty pattern.

Understanding how random fluctuations can ripple out to produce global effects is what French mathematician Vincent Vargas of the University of Geneva in Switzerland set out to do more than 10 years ago. His earliest ideas for simple geometries appeared in a decade-old paper, but it wasn’t until 2023, while he was working with Christophe Garban of the University of Lyon in France, that the concept finally crystallized into what is now known as the Garban-Vargas conjecture. Now mathematicians have proved the conjecture using an insightful technique that should open the door for understanding much more complex systems.

The conjecture involves the behavior of a form of randomness found in a huge range of fields, from quantum chaos to Brownian motion to air turbulence. Mathematicians use a mathematical “measuring tape” called Gaussian multiplicative chaos, or GMC, to pick out subtle patterns hidden inside an otherwise impenetrable sea of randomness. GMC has even been used to find patterns in the prime numbers. The topic is one of the most important and fundamental ideas in probability theory today.

French mathematician Jean-Pierre Kahane is credited with first developing GMC in 1985, although his pioneering work was quickly forgotten. “I was one of the people who revived his work,” Vargas says. “I met him many times, and he said he was amazed how important the topic [had] become. Everywhere on the planet, people are working on something related to Gaussian chaos.”

Vargas first encountered the measure while studying turbulence and finance. He then came across it again in a project on conformal field theory, which is used to study patterns that remain constant as you zoom in or out. Lately he has focused on investigating its fundamental mathematical nature.

To understand GMC, imagine a turbulent fluid full of swirling eddies at many different scales. Enormous eddies randomly break apart into smaller ones, which themselves break into even smaller eddies, in a vast, nested hierarchy of randomness. GMC serves as a mathematical model that measures this kind of multiscale randomness—it captures random fluctuations that persist across every scale of the observation. Because of this, it is often referred to as a fractal measure.

Mathematicians have uncovered surprising behaviors in the types of randomness governed by GMC. For instance, events at the smallest scales can govern the entire system; the powerful tendrils of fractal structure shape chaos at every level. As a result, these systems cannot be understood by looking at averages. Instead the rules of GMC produce a universal picture that applies to every scale.

But this fascinating picture only holds up to a critical threshold. If the underlying randomness becomes too strong, the GMC measure collapses. Or, in the language of eddies, once enough randomness infuses the swirls, they become unstable, losing all their hidden order. Like ice transitioning to a liquid, this breakdown marks an important phase transition for chaos.

In 2023 Garban and Vargas introduced a new lens for studying GMC chaos. It came from a field of mathematics called harmonic analysis. Instead of looking at eddies directly, they examined the frequencies of patterns hidden in the eddies, much like analyzing a complex sound by breaking it into pure tones.

Then an idea came to them. If they could match two completely different physical descriptions—complexity and harmonics—they might learn something new. Mathematicians refer to this idea of matching unrelated physical descriptions as matching “dimensions.”

As an example, consider snowflakes falling to the ground. As the snow gently lands, two possible dimensions might be how many patterns appear in the distribution of the snowflakes and how many clumpy piles form across different scales. But is there a formula that can relate the two dimensions of patterns (harmonics) and clumpiness (correlations)?

“The key word is dimension,” Vargas says. “That’s the name of the game. You have lots of natural dimensions, but when do they coincide?”

After studying systems governed by GMC on a circle, the duo conjectured an extraordinarily elegant equation that matched a GMC system’s correlation dimension to its harmonic dimension.

Unfortunately they couldn’t prove their formula, even for a simple geometry. In 2023 they posted their conjecture to the preprint server arXiv.org, and it subsequently became a major open problem.

In 2024 mathematicians Zhaofeng Lin and Yanqi Qiu of the Hangzhou Institute for Advanced Study, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Mingjie Tan of Wuhan University resolved the conjecture. Their research, which was posted as a preprint to arXiv.org and has not yet been peer-reviewed, not only confirmed the formula but also revealed why it works.

Mathematically, they likened GMC to a “fair betting game,” in which the expected winnings remain constant no matter the size of the game. When applied to fractal fluctuations, this means that the system remains balanced as you zoom in and out, and each smaller scale contributes randomness in a way that conserves energy.

Mathematicians call a process that exhibits this type of fair, scale-by-scale behavior a martingale. Unlike normal betting games, however, chaos “games” are much more complex, requiring higher-dimensional martingales.

“I heard about this conjecture during an online math workshop,” Qiu says. “I had focused on martingales for my Ph.D. thesis a few years back, and I had a hunch they would be the right tool here.”

The group used its higher-dimensional martingale structure to carefully track the accumulation of randomness at every scale. And sure enough, by conserving energy, numerous tiny “fair games” combined to give the same formula for the decay that Garban and Vargas had conjectured.

Qiu and his colleagues’ proof not only settled the conjecture but also paved the way for further proofs on more complex fractal models. The roadway to a complete theory isn’t entirely free of barriers, though. Even the new method fails when randomness forces the system to its critical phase-transition point. This phase transition itself is a rich and intriguing topic with its own set of deep questions, mathematicians say. But “to go further,” Qiu says, “we need new ideas.”